I first went to Thailand in 1997 and immediately fell in love with the country. Thailand at that time to me was mysterious and exotic, full of potentials and pitfalls.
Fast forward to 2010 and here I am after 13 years and many trips to the LOS sharing, with the help of my 
When Will Thailand Tourism Rebound?
It’s certainly been a tough few years for anyone in the tourism industry in Thailand. First we had the PAD takeover of Suvarnubhumi airport in December of 2008 which had a severe impact of that years’ high season for tourism and even impacted this years’ high season if anecdotal evidence is to be believed.
And now, even before Thailand tourism has recovered from the PAD demonstrations, we’ve had the red shirt takeover of many parts of Bangkok, just recently ended when red shirt leaders surrendered to the authorities. Yet the aftermath of that surrender, with several dozen buildings, including the huge Central World mall, the Thailand stock exchange and various print and television media outlets being set afire, has probably caused more harm than the entire 8 week standoff.
Thailand’s Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij has recently said that the red shirt protest have had a “disastrous” effect of Thai tourism. He goes on to say that tourism makes up 6% of Thailand’s GDP, but employs roughly 15-20% of the Thai workforce. He anticipates that the troubles in Bangkok will result in an impact on GDP of 0.3-0.5% and says that “we expect the formal Q1 (first quarter) figure to be in two digits” for 2010.
Well certainly first quarter numbers will be good Khun Chatikavanij, with all due respect the protests didn’t begin until near the end of the first quarter. What I am much more interested in seeing is the results for the other 3 quarters of 2010. Let’s face it; the destruction of a shopping center that accounts for 7 billion baht in sales annually and employs over 1000 people is no small thing. Coupled with the fact that most tourists, even tourists to Thailand, book their trips anywhere from 3-12 months in advance and I think we will see more than a 0.3-0.5% reduction in GDP.
People may have short memories, but Thailand tourism was still recovering from the 2008 airport takeover and this will put tourism in the Kingdom back another step. Since I don’t believe that all is as peaceful and settles as we would be led to believe it’s possible that more turmoil could be forthcoming, further dampening the flow of tourists into Thailand.
Many people note that troubles in Bangkok do not necessarily impact tourism in the islands and I heartily disagree with that sentiment. The protest and rioting in Bangkok will affect all areas of Thailand as they are all tied together in the tourists mind. As an example look at the impact of the swine flu on Mexican tourism. Even though there were no reported cases of swine flu on the Yucatan Penninsula and all confirmed cases were in Mexico City, some 1800km (1100 miles) from the Yucatan, there was a significant drop in tourism all along the Yucatan from Cancun to Cozumel to Playa del Carmen. People simply knew that swine flu was in Mexico and that was enough for them to cancel travel to ANY part of Mexico.
Overall tourism in Mexico fell an estimated 11.4% in 2009. Additionally, unemployment rose to the highest levels since 2000 when records were first kept. Mexico derives 8% of its GDP from tourism, pretty much on par with Thailand’s reported 6% figure.
Mexico’s example certainly doesn’t bode well for the Thailand tourism sector in 2010 and with 15-20% of the workforce employed in tourism who knows what kind of unemployment will be seen. Additionally, I wonder if that figure includes support services such as restaurants, bars and shopping venues? I seriously doubt that it does. What is the total impact when all of the ancillary services and business are considered?
Luckily the Thai’s are very resourceful and will rebound from this set back I’m sure. Family structures are still in place and helping each other, whether financially or through other means, is still a commonplace practice in Thailand. Worst case scenario for many is that they will move back home to their parents or grandparents farms. It may not be glamorous, but at least they won’t starve. And eventually the tourists will return to enjoy some of the most beautiful natural scenery in the world as well as some of the most beautiful people in the world.
I know some of my readers live in tourist destinations such as Krabi, Ko Phangan, Chiang Mai and Phuket and I’d love to hear your take on what tourism was like this past high season and what it looks like now. Please leave comments below to help us get a better picture of what’s happening on the ground.
Photo credits: flickr.com users friskodude and jo.sau.
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I am based in Bali with frequent travel to Thailand’s tropical islands, especially Phuket and Samui on business purpose. I think this is the worse hit to Thailand economic and tourism industry and recovery will definitely taking longer.
But learn from the situation in Bali and Indonesia, where similar situation was taking pace in the past, things will be getting back quicker than most of us imagined. I believe Thailand will we the same. It will bounce back faster than what we may have predicted.
Hi Steve,
greetings from Hat Yai, no sign of any trouble in this area over the last few days, everything open as normal. Most tourists to the city come from Malaysia to party at the weekend. It looked a lot quieter last night, as Malaysians come by bus I guess that many have chosen to stay away this weekend.
As for last season I was in Chiang Mai, they had a dreadful high season, numbers massively down, many bar owners I spoke to estimated as much as 50%!
I left to Siem Reap and Vietnam in mid January, both places were packed with tourists, looks like people visiting South East Asia were skipping Thailand and going to nearby countries instead.
One of the reasons I left Chiang Mai was that it was the start of the burning season; there should be a warning in guide books to avoid Northern Thailand in March and April because of all the smoke.
This is very interesting and informative to read, my brother and family have a Thailand vacation planned for August and are really on pins an needles about it.
45 baht to the £ isnt helping things.
truth is, thailand is no longer that attractive a destination.
viet nam is a better deal these days.