In a surprise announcement yesterday the Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen appointed Thaksin Shinawatra as economic advisor to Cambodia by royal decree. As I’m sure you know Mr. Shinawatra, a former Prime Minister of Thailand who was ousted in the 2006 coup, has been a fugitive from Thailand since fleeing in 2008 to avoid a 2 year jail sentence for using his political power to secure land deals.

This appointment could escalate tensions between Cambodia and Thailand. Relations have been strained over the past 18 months already due to a border dispute between the two countries involving possession of land around the Preah Vihear temple. Thailand is bound to ask Cambodia for exdradition of the former Prime Minister which Hun Sen has already vowed not to do.

On the other hand, I believe that this will play right into the hands of Thailand. In my opinion Thailand doesn’t really want Thaksin back in the country and imprisoned. He is much more valuable to them as a fugitive where they can play off the negative connotations of the fugitive condition and portray his supporters as illegitimate. Once Thaksin is caught and jailed he becomes something of a martyr and you can be sure his supporters will be enraged and will do nearly anything to secure his freedom.

As things stand Thailand keeps Thaksin at a distance from his supporters which keeps them from having a rallying point. Actually putting him in prison would make him an accessible symbol of the opposition and would likely spark off protests and rally’s by his supporters. Keeping him out of the country and yet close means he is less of a threat to Thailand stability.

I can’t be certain, but it seems to me that this latest ploy of Thaksin will play out to be a minor annoyance to the current Thai government and will quickly die away. As I said, they are happy to keep Thaksin out of the country and honestly have much greater problems to hold their attention. Hopefully tensions will not be increased with Cambodia and the Thai government can spend their time and effort improving the Thai economy and conditions for the Thai people.

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