Thailand Coup is Over
January 22, 2008
It appears the military backed coup is finally over as the military leaders have stepped aside as previously promised now that elections have taken place. The Parliment has convened for the first time since the coup and it appears that a pro-Thaksin Prime Minister will be elected.
Does this mean that we will see all of the changes made by the coup disintegrated and Thaksin will come back into power of some sort in Thailand? I think it is highly likely. Thaksin has a large degree of support, especially in the provinces of Thailand. Meanwhile the middle and upper class Thai’s in Bangkok will very likely protest once more.
It is difficult to see when stability will return to Thailand considering the current situation. One can hope that the return of the Thai Rak Thai party (under the guise of PPP) will also see the return of a more pro-business and foreigner friendly Thai government.
BANGKOK: — The military council which ousted Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in a 2006 putsch disbanded itself on Tuesday and promised there would be no more coups as a Thaksin-backed coalition prepared to take office.
The Council for National Security (CNS), widely derided for presiding over an inept government, also called on politicians to stay out of military affairs, suggesting it feared vengeful Thaksin supporters in office.
“Everybody in the CNS, especially the army commander-in-chief, insist there will be no more coups,” CNS spokesman Sunsern Kaewkumnerd told reporters.
“In a political transition into a full democracy, which is a sensitive period for all sides, the military should not be involved in politics and politicians should not interfere with the military,” he said.
“Therefore, we need a politically neutral person to be defence minister,” Sunsern said a month after elections in which the openly pro-Thaksin People Power Party fell just short of an overall majority.
That call followed newspaper reports that Samak Sundaravej, the firebrand PPP leader determined to become prime minister, would also become defence minister.
But the military is in a weak position after the elections proved Thaksin’s abiding popularity in the countryside where the majority of Thais live, despite CNS attempts to eradicate his influence.
The PPP campaigned on Thaksin’s populist platform and told people a vote for the party was a vote for Thaksin. The former prime minister was ousted months after street protests began against him in Bangkok and faces corruption charges when he returns from exile.
Political analysts saw the results of the December 23 election as a vote against the coup and criticism of the military is becoming ever more trenchant.
“The generals have proved unfit in their handling of post-coup Thailand,” Chulalongkorn University political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak wrote in Tuesday’s Bangkok Post.
“Policy directions have been murky, leadership incompetent, overall administration inept. The generals have made themselves obsolete by botching their latest putsch,” he said. The generals accused Thaksin of presiding over rampant corruption and of disrespect toward revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej — charges he denies — but an anti-graft panel they appointed has come up with only one case against him.
They also failed to eradicate his Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party despite its court-ordered dissolution for electoral fraud and the banning of Thaksin and 110 senior party members from politics for five years.
Thai Rak Thai members simply took over the almost defunct PPP, which is expected to take office at the head of a coalition government and occupy the most powerful ministries some time next month.
–Reuters Jan 22, 2008
Popularity: 18% [?]
Thailand December 2007 Election Results
December 24, 2007
With the elections recently completed in Thailand it looks like continuing political instability will be the norm for Thailand.
The newly formed pro-Thaksin People’s Power Party (PPP) is said to have gained 232 seats in the parliamentary election on December 23rd. The Thai parliment has 480 seats so the PPP is just 9 seats short of a majority and they are already claiming coalitions with smaller groups to ensure they gain the majority they need.
This is a huge blow to the military backed coup that was conducted in September. That coup ousted the then Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra amid claims of alleged corruption and abuse of power. Since that time Thaksin has been in exile in the U.K. although spokepeople of the PPP claim they will have him returning to Thailand by early in 2008, however Thaksin has not yet given a comment.
All is not rosy with the PPP either. Sodsri Sathayatham, a member of the Election Commission, said at least 24 winners could be disqualified, while new voting might be necessary in a dozen cases. The commission was barraged by hundreds of complaints of vote-buying and other violations of electoral law. It did not specify which parties’ candidates were involved.
Vote buying in Thailand? It’s hard to believe isn’t it? Seems that the current instability in Thailand will be maintained for at least a bit longer until the election results are sorted out.
Even if the People’s Power Party do maintain a majority it is likely that they will have difficulty. If the PPP comes to power, said Nakarin Mektrairat, dean of Thammasat University’s Faculty of Political Science, “there will be tension and conflicts,” in part because of its lack of support from Bangkok’s residents.
On a positive note for those vacationing in the kingdom, the political situation hasn’t had much effect on tourism in Thailand. Those with business interests in the kingdom, however are best to stay on the sidelines until the smoke clears as the current instability and constitutional changes have been bad all around for foreign business interests.
Popularity: 19% [?]
